What can the World Cup teach us about uncertainty?

My latest article from Substack on Navigating Uncertainty

So, this week I want to talk about England’s World Cup defeat by Argentina. And the lessons it provides for those leaders trying to navigate today’s uncertain world.

Yes, I know I’m a bit late. And yes, I know I risk sounding like a “LinkedIn Lovey” turning every current event into a leadership lesson. But this analogy is too good to ignore.

Volatility should breed innovation

The game against Argentina offered England the chance to reach the World Cup Final for the first time in decades. After playing a solid first half, England emerged after the break with real intent, creating chances, spotting openings and finding inventive ways through the Argentinian defence. Ten minutes in, they scored. Brilliant. Then everything changed. They took their foot off the gas. The thinking seemed to be: we’re ahead, let’s just protect our lead.

In a routine league match, that might have worked. (Although, as a Leeds United fan, I’ve seen that strategy end badly more than once!) But this wasn’t routine. This was the World Cup. High pressure. High stakes. Against one of the most unpredictable teams in football. Argentina thrive in chaos. Give them an opening and they’ll find a dozen ways through. The only way to beat a team like that is to keep attacking. Keep the ball in their half. Force them to defend. Score enough that they can never catch up. But England didn’t do that. They sat back. Argentina found a way through. Twice. Game over. England’s World Cup hopes over too.

A lesson on uncertainty

So why am I talking about football? Because England’s approach is one that too many companies bring to today’s business environment.

Imagine the team as a company that’s just launched a successful new product or business model and pulled clear of the competition. What do they do? Too often they relax. They focus on protecting what they’ve built instead of creating what’s next. That’s risky even in stable markets. While you’re celebrating your latest success, someone else is sure to be working out how to beat it.

But in today’s world, it’s not just risky. It’s potentially fatal. Markets shift overnight. AI transforms industries in months, not years. New competitors appear from nowhere. Customer expectations evolve constantly. Standing still, even briefly, means falling behind. Like I said in another recent article, business today is as different from the past as the Grand National from a traditional point to point.

How Nokia and Blackberry responded to disruption

The mobile phone industry offers a sobering example. Nokia and BlackBerry dominated their markets and assumed their success would continue. Nokia sold almost 150 million 3310s. BlackBerry became so addictive it earned the nickname “CrackBerry”. But instead of continuing to innovate, both stagnated. Happy in their bubble of success, they underestimated how quickly smartphones would redefine the market. Nokia’s first serious smartphone arrived with too little commitment and too little ambition. It initially captured almost 50% global market share on the strength of the Nokia brand, but within five years that had collapsed to just 4% as rivals surged ahead. BlackBerry followed a similar path. Its innovative design secured a 50% share of the US market, but it failed to keep evolving while Apple and Samsung transformed the category. Soon seen as an anachronism, it ended phone production in 2016.

So how should those companies have responded? Instead of doing what England did against Argentina, they should have done what England did in their Bronze Medal play-off against France. Not passive consolidation but all-out attack.

Success today won’t guarantee success tomorrow

Companies can never assume today’s success will guarantee tomorrow’s. They need to create that new success. While one of your teams celebrates a successful launch, another should already be building the product that replaces it. Challenge your own business before someone else does. Experiment constantly. Scan for weak signals. Reward curiosity instead of protecting old assumptions. Treat change as an opportunity not a threat.

It’s the mindset companies like Apple, Nike and McDonalds have mastered. They understand that innovation isn’t an occasional event. It’s a permanent habit. Steve Jobs captured it perfectly: “If you don’t cannibalise yourself, someone else will.”

In volatile markets, successful companies are the ones that keep attacking, keep innovating and keep reinventing themselves. Nine times out of ten, they’ll win out against those that just sit back, dig in, and defend what they’ve already achieved.